The 2002 rainy season was late in starting and irregular across all the agricultural zones of the CILSS member countries. As of the end of the second dekad of July, the rainfall situation improved in Guinea Bissau, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad. The rains recorded between October and July were rather well distributed in time and space.
On the other hand, in western Sahel (North of the agricultural zone of Mali, Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia and Cape Verde) the rainfall situation was not satisfactory and there were many dry pockets in August and September.
Overall, in spite of the continuation of rains until October, total seasonal rainfall remained below last year and the long term mean.
Due to the 2002 rainfall situation, cropping activities started late in most countries. Consequently, crop sowing was heterogeneous and staggered in time. Resowing continued in August and even in September in Cape Verde.
Moisture conditions improved in September and October and enabled crops that were late in growing in Burkina Faso and Niger to complete their cycle under adequate conditions. On the other hand, in Mali, Chad, Mauritania, Northern half of Senegal, the Gambia and Cape Verde dry spells occurred at a critical moment in crop water uptake and had an adverse impact on these countries’ crop harvest prospects.
Special issue of the AGRHYMET’s Monthly Bulletin - November 2002, Vol. 12, N° M-07/02 3
The 2002/2003 gross cereal production of the CILSS member countries was estimated at 11,320,700 tons against 11,628,900 tons last year. If this data is confirmed, the Sahel will register a gross cereal production slightly below (-3%) the 2001/2002 cropping season’s. On the other hand, the expected production level will be 11% higher than the past five-year average.
In relation to last year, all the CILSS member countries’ production noticeably declined with the exception of Burkina Faso (+5%) and Niger where it was equivalent.
The same trend applied to the per capita production. Therefore, at regional level, the per capita production will be about 195 kg against 206 kg last year. This production was 5% lower than the 2001/2002 cropping season and 4% higher than the past five-year average. The per capita production will be down in most countries including Cape Verde (-73%), Mauritania (-43%), Senegal (-11%), Guinea Bissau (-10%), Chad (-10%), Mali (-6%) and The Gambia (-5%). It will be up only in Burkina Faso (+21%) and Niger (+12%).
The stocks held by farmers, tradesmen and public bodies were estimated at 584, 700 tons against 615, 800 tons last year at the same period. Predictions of imports (rice and wheat mainly) stood at 2, 477, 900 tons. They were slightly below the imports achieved in 2001/2002 (2, 482, 500 tons).
Therefore, the overall provisional availabilities were 12, 321, 200 tons against overall needs of 11, 997, 500 tons including 11, 333, 800 tons for human consumption and 663, 700 tons for closing stocks. The latter, particularly farmers’ stocks will increase due to some countries’ good harvest prospects (Burkina Faso and Niger).
Consequently, at regional level resources and uses showed a net surplus of 323, 600 tons against 322, 200 tons last year. Yet, availabilities were very unevenly distributed among countries and even within each country. Burkina Faso and Niger registered food surpluses. The situation was average in Chad and Mali. Elsewhere, it was poor overall. The provisional cereal balance sheets attached hereto depict the situation of each country.
This year, the regional cereal food situation will be average but with much localised tight conditions. As a matter of facts, more pockets experiencing situational deficits were observed in all the countries. Populations will find it difficult to afford cereals in these areas and in structurally deficient ones because high enough market prices might not drop and facilitate the access of these populations to cereals.
The situation will be tighter in Mali and western Sahel (Cape Verde, the Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania and Senegal). Yet, these hardships will be alleviated in certain areas via adequate programmes of commercial import and off-season cropping.
On the other hand, in some cases, difficulties will be so acute that they will call for food aid. That is the case with Mauritania particularly, which has been experiencing a severe food crisis for many years.
Decisions makers should pay special attention to this country in order to avoid a food crisis whose harbingers were already perceptible.
Furthermore, the regional food security might be affected by the consequences of the political crisis prevailing in Côte d’Ivoire particularly :
The food supplies of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger that import maize during the lean season (hungry season), yams and plantains etc. from this country ;
Concerning incomes, it is to be feared that the disruptions of livestock and cotton exports from Burkina Faso and Mali, to Côte d’Ivoire result in a decrease in rural households’ purchasing power ;
Other income generating activities such as the building industry, migration, petty trade etc. might also be affected.
more information: AGRHYMET MONTHLY BULLETIN